A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
